The openness of the political democracy to select the presidency of Somalia will have a significant negative impact on the ongoing conflict and political turmoil in Ethiopia. Somalia is recovering from three decades of civil war, fueled by Ethiopia. In the last seven years, Ethiopia has been ravaged by civil strife based on ethnic, religious, linguistic and cultural differences. Ethiopia’s ethnic groups include the Ogaden Somalis, who were annexed by the British to Ethiopia in 1954. The Ogaden region has been the scene of clashes between Ethiopia and Somalia, although the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) has been at war with Ethiopia for the past three decades without any support from Somalia. .
However, the lack of political stability in Somalia was due to Ethiopia’s fear that the war against the ONLF could not be won unless Somalia remained in ruins and civil war.
The ONLF, which was at war with the former Ethiopian government, entered into a peace agreement with Abi Ahmed’s government to pursue its political goals peacefully in Ethiopia, agreeing on four key elements of peace. Three years later, the ONLF filed a complaint alleging that the Ethiopian government had not implemented a single provision of the 2018 agreement and abuses by the regional administration. With the dissolution of the ONLF, Ethiopia used the Somali regional administration and now former ONLF members have joined the federal government and the Somali regional administration. This shows Ethiopia’s unwillingness to continue its agreement with the ONLF. Previously, the ONLF did not have the political opportunity to regroup as the former Somali government was under the auspices of the war-torn government in Ethiopia.
Somalia’s presidential election was celebrated in all cities in the Somali region, including Dire Dawa. In the past, Ethiopia has imprisoned Somalis on the pretext of listening to radio broadcasts in Somalia. This is a testament to the fact that during the 30 years of Somalia’s anarchy, the Horn of Africa region has become an Ethiopian-dominated ethnic group, including Somalis.
Now the situation is different from what it was centuries ago, in that the Ethiopian empire forcibly brought together ethnic groups to colonize them.
Every ethnic group in Ethiopia today is fighting for its ethnic rights, at least in the form of democracy or secession from Ethiopia. Ethiopia is not ready and will not be able to achieve political openness based on democracy, so instead predicts that Ethiopia is on the verge of collapse that has already taken place in countries in Eastern Europe.
The government to be formed in Somalia will not be able to serve the Ethiopian government, as the Somali people consider Ethiopia an affront to the Somali nation and dignity.
The United States has said it will send troops to Somalia as political tensions between Baden and Abi Ahmed’s government are running high and this could lead to rapid political change in Ethiopia.